Factors affecting rice prices in the world market
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to study the factors affect the price of White rice, Hom Mali rice, and Basmati rice by using secondary. This study employed the ordinary least squares (OLS), two-step least squares (2SLS) methods, and the simultaneous equation model was estimated by the indirect least squares (ILS) method. The results showed the price of oil, the growth rate of the world gross product, and US government bond yields affect the price of white rice, Hom Mali rice and basmati rice. For the number of statuses sell and buy contact that open in future market on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) variable which represents speculation. The result found that it has a positive correlation with the price of rice. In addition, the price of white rice and the price of Hom Mali rice have a positive correlation, which means that white rice and Hom Mali rice are substitute goods.
Article Details
Copyright to published manuscripts becomes the property of the Graduate School of Development Economics, National Institute of Development Administration. Reproduction of all or part of a Development Economic Review (DER) article by anyone, excluding author(s), is prohibited, unless receiving our permission.
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in articles published in this journal are those of the author (s) and do nto necessarily represent opinions of the Graduate School of Development Economics, National Institute of Development Administration. Trade and proprietary names are only for identification and not constitute our endorsement.
References
Abdullah, M., Li, J., Ghazanfar, S., Ahmed, J., Khan, I., & Ishaq, M. N. (2015). Where Pakistan stands among top rice exporting countries, an analysis of competitiveness. Journal of Northeast Agricultural University (English Edition), 22(2), 80-86.
Andreyeva, T., Long, M. W., & Brownell, K. D. (2010). The impact of food prices on consumption: a systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for food. American journal of public health, 100(2), 216-222.
Awika, J. M. (2011). Major cereal grains production and use around the world. In Advances in cereal science: implications to food processing and health promotion (pp. 1-13): ACS Publications.
Baffes, J. (2007). Oil spills on other commodities. Resources Policy, 32(3), 126-134.
Baffes, J., & Haniotis, T. (2016). What explains agricultural price movements? Journal of agricultural economics, 67(3), 706-721.
Baumeister, C., & Hamilton, J. D. (2019). Structural interpretation of vector autoregressions with incomplete identification: Revisiting the role of oil supply and demand shocks. American Economic Review, 109(5), 1873-1910.
Calpe, C. (2006). Rice international commodity profile. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.
Chen, S.-T., Kuo, H.-I., & Chen, C.-C. (2010). Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices. Applied Energy, 87(8), 2517-2525.
Childs, N., & Burdett, A. (2000). The US rice export market. In Rice Situation and Outlook Yearbook 2000 (pp. 48-54): US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
Choi, S., Dyck, J., & Childs, N. (2016). The rice market in South Korea.
Frankel, J. A. (2008). The effect of monetary policy on real commodity prices. Asset prices and monetary policy, 291.
Gilbert, C. L. (2010). How to understand high food prices. Journal of agricultural economics, 61(2), 398-425.
Haile, M. G., Kalkuhl, M., & Braun, J. v. (2016). Worldwide acreage and yield response to international price change and volatility: a dynamic panel data analysis for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans. In Food price volatility and its implications for food security and policy (pp. 139-165): Springer.
Hansen, J., Fuller, F., Gale, F., Crook, F., Wailes, E., & Moore, M. (2002). China’s japonica rice market: growth and competitiveness. Rice situation and outlook yearbook, 32-37.
Magno, R. C., & Yanagida, J. F. (2000). Effect of trade liberalization in the short-grain japonica rice market: A spatial-temporal equilibrium analysis. Journal of Philippine Development, 49, 71-99.
Masette, M., Candia, A., Khakasa, E., Okurut, S., & Tinyiro, S. (2013). Preferences of Ugandan consumers for rice varieties and brands on the local market. Uganda Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 14(2), 1-11.
McKelvey, C. (2011). Price, unit value, and quality demanded. Journal of Development Economics, 95(2), 157-169.
OECD/FAO. (2018). “Cereals”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027: OECD Publishing, Paris/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
Olayungbo, D. O. (2021). Global oil price and food prices in food importing and oil exporting developing countries: A panel ARDL analysis. Heliyon, 7(3), e06357.
Ott, H. (2014a). Extent and possible causes of intrayear agricultural commodity price volatility. Agricultural Economics, 45(2), 225-252.
Ott, H. (2014b). Volatility in cereal prices: Intra‐versus inter‐annual volatility. Journal of agricultural economics, 65(3), 557-578.
Robles, M., Torero, M., & Von Braun, J. (2009). When speculation matters. Retrieved from
Santeramo, F. G. (2017). Market Fundamentals and International Grain Price Volatility. Retrieved from
Tadasse, G., Algieri, B., Kalkuhl, M., & Braun, J. v. (2016). Drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility. In Food price volatility and its implications for food security and policy (pp. 59-82): Springer, Cham.
Tansuchat, R., Maneejuk, P., Wiboonpongse, A., & Sriboonchitta, S. (2016). Price transmission mechanism in the Thai rice market. In Causal Inference in Econometrics (pp. 451-461): Springer.
Timmer, C. P. (2009). Rice price formation in the short run and the long run: The role of market structure in explaining volatility. In Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices (pp. 151-183).
Unnevehr, L., Juliano, B., & Perez, C. (1985). Consumer demand for rice grain quality in Southeast Asia. Rice Grain Quality Mark International Rice Research Institute, 933, 15-23.
Wiboonpongse, A., & Chaovanapoonphol, Y. (2001). Rice marketing system in Thailand. Paper presented at the International Symposium, Agribusiness Management towards Strengthening Agricultural Development and Trade: III Agribusiness Research on Marketing and Trade.
Yu, B., & Fan, S. (2011). Rice production response in Cambodia. Agricultural Economics, 42(3), 437-450.
Abdullah, M., Li, J., Ghazanfar, S., Ahmed, J., Khan, I., & Ishaq, M. N. (2015). Where Pakistan stands among top rice exporting countries, an analysis of competitiveness. Journal of Northeast Agricultural University (English Edition), 22(2), 80-86.
Andreyeva, T., Long, M. W., & Brownell, K. D. (2010). The impact of food prices on consumption: a systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for food. American journal of public health, 100(2), 216-222.
Awika, J. M. (2011). Major cereal grains production and use around the world. In Advances in cereal science: implications to food processing and health promotion (pp. 1-13): ACS Publications.
Baffes, J. (2007). Oil spills on other commodities. Resources Policy, 32(3), 126-134.
Baffes, J., & Haniotis, T. (2016). What explains agricultural price movements? Journal of agricultural economics, 67(3), 706-721.
Baumeister, C., & Hamilton, J. D. (2019). Structural interpretation of vector autoregressions with incomplete identification: Revisiting the role of oil supply and demand shocks. American Economic Review, 109(5), 1873-1910.
Calpe, C. (2006). Rice international commodity profile. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.
Chen, S.-T., Kuo, H.-I., & Chen, C.-C. (2010). Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices. Applied Energy, 87(8), 2517-2525.
Childs, N., & Burdett, A. (2000). The US rice export market. In Rice Situation and Outlook Yearbook 2000 (pp. 48-54): US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
Choi, S., Dyck, J., & Childs, N. (2016). The rice market in South Korea.
Frankel, J. A. (2008). The effect of monetary policy on real commodity prices. Asset prices and monetary policy, 291.
Gilbert, C. L. (2010). How to understand high food prices. Journal of agricultural economics, 61(2), 398-425.
Haile, M. G., Kalkuhl, M., & Braun, J. v. (2016). Worldwide acreage and yield response to international price change and volatility: a dynamic panel data analysis for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans. In Food price volatility and its implications for food security and policy (pp. 139-165): Springer.
Hansen, J., Fuller, F., Gale, F., Crook, F., Wailes, E., & Moore, M. (2002). China’s japonica rice market: growth and competitiveness. Rice situation and outlook yearbook, 32-37.
Magno, R. C., & Yanagida, J. F. (2000). Effect of trade liberalization in the short-grain japonica rice market: A spatial-temporal equilibrium analysis. Journal of Philippine Development, 49, 71-99.
Masette, M., Candia, A., Khakasa, E., Okurut, S., & Tinyiro, S. (2013). Preferences of Ugandan consumers for rice varieties and brands on the local market. Uganda Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 14(2), 1-11.
McKelvey, C. (2011). Price, unit value, and quality demanded. Journal of Development Economics, 95(2), 157-169.
OECD/FAO. (2018). “Cereals”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027: OECD Publishing, Paris/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
Olayungbo, D. O. (2021). Global oil price and food prices in food importing and oil exporting developing countries: A panel ARDL analysis. Heliyon, 7(3), e06357.
Ott, H. (2014a). Extent and possible causes of intrayear agricultural commodity price volatility. Agricultural Economics, 45(2), 225-252.
Ott, H. (2014b). Volatility in cereal prices: Intra‐versus inter‐annual volatility. Journal of agricultural economics, 65(3), 557-578.
Robles, M., Torero, M., & Von Braun, J. (2009). When speculation matters. Retrieved from
Santeramo, F. G. (2017). Market Fundamentals and International Grain Price Volatility. Retrieved from
Tadasse, G., Algieri, B., Kalkuhl, M., & Braun, J. v. (2016). Drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility. In Food price volatility and its implications for food security and policy (pp. 59-82): Springer, Cham.
Tansuchat, R., Maneejuk, P., Wiboonpongse, A., & Sriboonchitta, S. (2016). Price transmission mechanism in the Thai rice market. In Causal Inference in Econometrics (pp. 451-461): Springer.
Timmer, C. P. (2009). Rice price formation in the short run and the long run: The role of market structure in explaining volatility. In Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices (pp. 151-183).
Unnevehr, L., Juliano, B., & Perez, C. (1985). Consumer demand for rice grain quality in Southeast Asia. Rice Grain Quality Mark International Rice Research Institute, 933, 15-23.
Wiboonpongse, A., & Chaovanapoonphol, Y. (2001). Rice marketing system in Thailand. Paper presented at the International Symposium, Agribusiness Management towards Strengthening Agricultural Development and Trade: III Agribusiness Research on Marketing and Trade.
Yu, B., & Fan, S. (2011). Rice production response in Cambodia. Agricultural Economics, 42(3), 437-450.
กรองทิพย์ เขียนทอง. (2536). การวิเคราะห์แผนแบบของราคาข้าวภายในประเทศ. บัญฑิตวิทยาลัย มหาวิทยาลัยเชียงใหม่. สืบค้นจาก http://repository.cmu.ac.th/handle/6653943832/17714
Krongthip Khianthong. (1993). Analysis of the model plan of domestic rice prices. Graduate School, Chiang Mai University. Retrieved from http://repository.cmu.ac.th/handle/6653943832/17714
กรมการข้าว. (2555). เทคโนโลยีการปลูกข้าวไร่อย่างยั่งยืน. กรุงเทพมหานคร: ชุมนุมสหกรณ์การเกษตรแห่งประเทศไทย.
Rice Department. (2012). Sustainable Technology on Upland Rice Cultivation. Bangkok: The Agricultural Cooperative Federation of Thailand., Limited. (In Thai)
จิตรกร จารุพงษ์. (2554). ผลกระทบจากมาตรการสต๊อกข้าวของรัฐบาลต่อราคาและการส่งออกข้าวของไทย: มหาวิทยาลัยธรรมศาสตร์.
Jittakorn Charupong. (2011). Impacts of government rice stock measures on Thai rice export prices and Thai rice exports: Thammasat University. (In Thai)
ชัยวัฒน์ สาวเจริญสุข. (2562). แนวโน้มธุรกิจ/อุตสาหกรรม 2562-2564 : อุตสาหกรรมข้าว. งานวิจัยธนาคารกรุงศรีอยุธยา. สืบค้นจากhttps://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/industry-outlook/agriculture/rice/io/io-rice-20
Chaiwat Sowcharoensuk. (2019). Industry Outlook 2019-2021: Rice Industry. Krungsri Research. Retrieved from Krungsri Research: https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/industry-outlook/agriculture/rice/io/io-rice-20
มณเฑียร สติมานนท์. (2549). ข้าวภายใต้องค์การค้าโลก. คณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยธรรมศาสตร์.
Monthien Satimanon. (2006). Rice under the World Trade Organization. Faculty of Economics Thammasat University. (In Thai)
รุ่งทิวา ไพรบึง, ทัศนีย์ หยงสตาร, และจิตตานันท์ สิทธิสาร. (2561). การศึกษาปัจจัยที่มีอิทธิพลต่อราคาข้าวหอมมะลิ. วารสารวิชาการวิทยาศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยราชภัฏจันทรเกษม, 28(4), 1-5.
Rungtiwa Phraibueng, Thatsani Yongsatan, & Chittanun Sitthisan. (2018). An Investigation for the factors that affect the price of Jasmine Rice. Science Journal Chandrakasem Rajabhat University, 28(4), 1-5. (In Thai)
วารีรัตน์ เพชรสีช่วง. (2560). โอกาสและความท้าทายของทิศทางราคาส่งออกข้าวไทยในอนาคต. วารสารสำนักงานนโยบายและยุทธศาสตร์การค้า, 7(73), 6-7.
Warirat Phetsichuang. (2017). Opportunities and challenges of future Thai rice export price directions. Trade Policy and Strategy Office Journal, 7(73), 6-7. (In Thai)
วิทยา เจียรพันธุ์. (2553). บทวิจารณ์หนังสือ หนี้สินเกษตรกรไทย. วารสารสมาคมนักวิจัย, 16(3), 172-173.
Wittaya Cheerraphan. (2010). Book review Thai Farmers' Debt. Journal of the Association of Researchers, 16(3), 172-173. (In Thai)
สมาคมผู้ส่งออกข้าวไทย. (ม.ป.ป.). ข้อมูลเกี่ยวกับข้าว. สืบค้นจาก http://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/rice_profile.htm
Rice Exporters Association. (n.d.). Information about rice. Retrieved from http://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/rice_profile.htm
สันติยา เอกอัคร. (2553). เอกสารประกอบการบรรยาย วิชา เศรษฐศาสตร์เบื้องต้น. คณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์.
Santiya Ekakhara. (2010). Handouts : Introduction to Economics. Faculty of Economics, Kasetsart University. (In Thai)
สำนักงานเศรษฐกิจการเกษตร. (2562). เนื้อที่ใช้ประโยชน์ทางการเกษตร รายจังหวัด ปี พ.ศ. 2562. สืบค้นจาก https://www.oae.go.th/assets/portals/1/files/socio/LandUtilization2562.pdf
Office of Agricultural Economics. (2019). Agriculture land use by province, 2019. Retrieved from https://www.oae.go.th/assets/portals/1/files/socio/LandUtilization2562.pdf
สำนักงานเศรษฐกิจการเกษตร. (2565). สถิติการเกษตรของประเทศไทย ปี พ.ศ. 2564. สืบค้นจาก https://www.oae.go.th/assets/portals/1/files/jounal/2565/yearbook2564.pdf
Office of Agricultural Economics. (2022). Thailand's Agricultural Statistics Year 2021. Retrieved from https://www.oae.go.th/assets/portals/1/files/jounal/2565/yearbook2564.pdf
สุจิตรา รักวรนิต และ จรัชวรรณ จันทรรัตน์. (2559). ปัจจัยที่มีผลกระทบต่อการเปลี่ยนแปลงของราคาข้าวเปลือก. มหาวิทยาลัยหอการค้าไทย.
Suchitra Rakvarranit & Jaratwan Chantararat. (2016). Factors affecting the dynamics of paddy prices. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. (In Thai)
สุพิชชา โชติกำจร และ ฐากูร อนุสรณ์พาณิชกุล. (2562). ภาวะความยากจนและคุณภาพชีวิตของครัวเรือนเกษตรกรในเขตจังหวัดเพชรบูรณ์. ราชภัฏเพชรบูรณ์สาร, 21(1), 87-94.
Supitcha Chotikhamjorn & Thakurn Anusonpanichakul. (2019). Poverty and Quality of Life of Agricultural Households in Phetchabun Province. Phetchabun Rajabhat Journal, 21(1), 87-94. (In Thai)
สุริยะ หาญพิชัย, สุเทพ เชาวลิต, และวราภรณ์ ทรัพย์รวงทอง. (2562). ยุทธศาสตร์ขจัดความยากจนของเกษตรกรในจังหวัดชัยภูมิ. วารสารมนุษยศาสตร์และสังคมศาสตร์, มหาวิทยาลัยราชภัฏอุบลราชธานี, 10(1), 319-330.
Suriya Hanphicha, Suthep Chaowalit, & Waraporn Subruangthong. (2019). The Strategies to Eliminate Farmers’ Poverty in Chaiyaphum Province. Humanities and Social Sciences Journal, Ubon Ratchathani Rajabhat University, 10(1), 319-330. (In Thai)
อรรถพงษ์ ลลิตาศรม และ สุดา ปีตะวรรณ. (2551). การศึกษาปัจจยที่ส่งผลกระทบต่อปริมาณการส่งออกข้าวของประเทศไทยระหว่างปี พ.ศ.2535 – พ.ศ. 2550. มหาวิทยาลัยหอการค้าไทย.
Attaphong Lalitasom & Suda Pitawan. (2008). A study of the impact on Thailand's rice exports between 1992 and 2007. University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. (In Thai)