Forecasting the situation of Hand Foot and Mouth disease in Sakon Nakhon, 2020

Abstract

This study is a descriptive study and a quantitative forecasting to describe the epidemiological characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease in Sakon Nakhon Province in the years 2007 - 2019 and to forecast the occurrence of the disease in Sakon Nakhon Province in 2020. The disease data were collected from the epidemiological surveillance database (R 506) 2007-2019. Trends of disease by person, time and place were analyzed for descriptive statistics and the forecasting of disease were analyzed using time series analysis (Holt-Winter Multipicative) in the Eview program.

The results showed that in 2020 there will be cases throughout the year. The number of cases will peak at the beginning of the year, from January to April and after that, there were only a few cases. The number of cases for each month in 2020 will be lower than 2019 and it will be lower than the median of monthly cases for the past 5 years (2014-2018). Although the number of cases will be low in 2020 but intensive and continuous prevention and control measures should be taken. Especially in child development centers and schools because the disease can be found throughout the year. If the preventive and disease control measures are not executed well enough, widespread epidemic might occur. In addition, the disease should be evaluated to monitor patient data and encourage disease reporting on a regular basis. This will ensure that the number of patients is accurate and it will reflect the effectiveness of the measures taken in the area as well.