Bayesian Model for Tourism in Thailand under Political and Terrorism Uncertainty

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Published: Jan 24, 2016
Keywords:
Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Consumer Confidence Political and Terrorism Uncertainty Tourism

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Komkrit Wongkhae

Abstract

Political and terrorism uncertainty did vastly effect on tourism as well as economic sector. Since these two unpleasant events affected the decision of destination selection of tourist.   This study verified inter-relationship among tourism arrival, monthly index of production, consumer price index and local consumer confidence by using political and deep Southern terrorism unrests as exogenous variables. In order to capture these linkages, the study adopted Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) Model for estimation. The contemporaneous restriction matrix was used to determine the relationship among variables. The study revealed that there exist negative shock of political demonstrations on tourist arrival and positive direction on national price level. The Southern terrorism events on the other hand, the effect was not found to the international tourism but the negative effect was sizably detected on local’s consumer confidence. The policy recommendation was that the national stability is necessary to implement for enhancing both local confidence and tourist arrivals.

Article Details

How to Cite
Wongkhae, K. (2016). Bayesian Model for Tourism in Thailand under Political and Terrorism Uncertainty. WMS Journal of Management, 5(1), 40–47. Retrieved from https://so06.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/wms/article/view/47201
Issue
Vol. 5 No. 1 (2016): January - April 2016
Section
Research Articles-Academic Articles
Author Biography

Komkrit Wongkhae

Faculty of Accountancy and Management, Mahasarakham University

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