Econometrics Model of Severity of Airplane Accident Occurrences

Abstract

Air travelling is the most convenient and safe mode of transportation.  However, the recently occurred of severe air accidents gradually increased and affected the decision of passengers. This paper aimed to study factor affecting severity of aviation accidents represented by number of the fatality passengers. The study divided into two models. The first model was the aggregated model, Explanatory variables included in the study were location of crash, seat capacity, age of the aircraft, distance of traveling, type of fleets and category of events. employed 397 data of accidents during 1953 -2015. The results revealed that fleet capacity and age of aircraft positively related with severity level. For the second model which focused on 3 aircrafts from the big 3 companies namely, Airbus, Boeing and McDonald Douglas  Dependent variables also was number of deads but independent variables were interaction terms of airplane company and seat capacity, age of aircraft and planed distance. And used 155 events from the first model’s samples. The results indicated that as the older airplane, Airbus accidents provided the most serious events. But for the inter-action term of type and capacity, only Boeing and McDonald Douglas led to the higher fatality passengers.