Sources of Exchange Rate Volatility in Thailand

บทคัดย่อ

This study aims to examine the pass-through effects of key macroeconomic variables on the
exchange rate in Thailand by using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis. The
macroeconomic variables used in this study are exchange rate, GDP, CPI, money supply, and
oil price from the period of 1993Q1 through 2008Q4. The results from the VAR analysis
suggest that first, all key macroeconomic variables, including GDP, CPI, money supply, and oil
price, have affected exchange rate volatility from impulse response analysis. Second, for the
variance decomposition analysis, CPI shock has the most influential effect on exchange rate
volatility. Finally, the causality test suggests that GDP absorbs all of the effects from exchange
rate, money supply, CPI, and oil price. At the same time, GDP affects money supply as well. In
sum, the results imply that changes in key macroeconomic variables are likely accompanied by
exchange rate volatility.