Urbanization, Regionalism, and Voting Behavior in Thailand: Spatial Regression Model
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Abstract
There are few evidences on the relationship between political geography and election. This study aims at exploring the relationship between urbanization and latest voting behavior (2011) in Thailand using spatial error regression analysis. Urbanization index has been constructed by principal component analysis, and two components are revealed, namely urban socioeconomic index (USEI) and urban density index (UDI). The study of voting behavior was collected from the Election Commission of Thailand including vote sharing from political parties, the proportion of the people who do not go to polling station to vote and people who choose their right for vote no.
Spatial error regression model was applied in this study. The result shows that the place where USEI and UDI were low tend to vote for Pheuthai party. This was contrary to the Democrat party that gained votes in high Urbanization index and positively relates with the proportion of the people who do not go to polling station and go to choose their right for “ no vote” . Besides, the result has shown that the election in Thailnad is regionalism as flows: Pheuthai Party dominates northeastern region, while Democrat party occupies southern region.
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