Socioeconomic Adaptation of Goat-Related Value Chain Amid the COVID-19 Crisis: A Case Study of Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Thailand

Abstract

During the fourth wave of COVID-19, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya province enforced strict controls that disrupted the entire goat supply chain. Upstream, farmers experienced increased production costs; midstream, gatherers, wholesalers, and restaurant operators struggled with restricted operations; and downstream, reduced religious ceremonies and lower incomes led to a sharp decline in goat demand. This study aims to 1) analyse the current goat supply chain and 2) develop adaptive strategies for goat-related businesses under a VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) environment. Data were collected via structured, in-depth interviews with 155 goat supply chain entrepreneurs in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya Province, selected through snowball sampling, and 259 consumers identified by purposive sampling. The reliability and content validity of the research instruments were confirmed using the Index of Item-Objective Congruence (IOC). Results reveal that the goat meat value chain comprises three main segments: live goat collectors or butchers (11.9% income ratio), processors (5%), and integrated entrepreneurs (74.3%). Analysis using the VUCA framework shows that the demand for goat meat declined by 95% while production costs increased by 20%, reflecting significant market volatility and changing consumer behaviour. These findings underscore the critical need for strategic planning, risk management, and operational agility. The study recommends that entrepreneurs adopt adaptive tools, such as Game Theory, to better navigate uncertainties and enhance business resilience.