A MODEL FOR FORECASTING LIVE PIG PRICES IN THAILAND
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Abstract
Research article aimed to develop a forecasting model for live swine prices in Thailand using monthly time series data from January 2015 to December 2024, covering a total of 120 months. The study employed the Box-Jenkins approach together with the ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables) model. The exogenous variables included diesel fuel prices, piglet prices, feed prices, vaccine prices, and the consumer price index, while the dependent variable was the live swine price in Thailand. The research procedure consisted of four main steps: 1) Stationarity Testing, 2) Multicollinearity Testing, 3) ARIMAX Model Specification and Parameter Estimation, and 4) Model Diagnostic Checking and Forecast Accuracy Evaluation. The results revealed that the average live swine price was 72.764 baht per kilogram. Among the independent variables, piglet prices showed the highest volatility (CV = 30.617%), followed by vaccine prices (CV = 22.135%). The ARIMAX (1,0,0) model was identified as the most appropriate forecasting model, with the lowest AIC and BIC values of -340.909 and -318.676, respectively. The analysis of influencing factors indicated that piglet prices and vaccine prices had a positive and statistically significant effect on live swine prices at the .01 significance level. In contrast, diesel fuel prices, feed prices, and the consumer price index had no significant effect on live swine prices. The forecasting model demonstrated a very high level of accuracy, with a MAPE value of 4.059%. Forecasting results suggested that live swine prices in 2025 would gradually increase from 78.58 baht per kilogram in January to 81.32 baht per kilogram in December.
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