Factors Affecting The Values of Thailand’s Gems and Jewelry Export

Abstract

The objective of this research article is to (1) investigate the factors affecting the export value of gemstones and jewelry from Thailand, and (2) develop a suitable multiple regression model for forecasting the export value of gemstones and jewelry from Thailand. The study utilizes secondary data on a quarterly basis from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2024, comprising a total of 80 observations. This includes the export value of gemstones and jewelry, the exchange rate of the Thai baht to the US dollar, the export price index, diesel prices, interest rates, Industrial Export Value, inflation rates, and average wages categorized by occupation. The statistical method employed is multiple regression analysis using a stepwise regression approach. The findings indicate that (1) the export price index, interest rates, and Industrial Export Value significantly impact the export value of gemstones and jewelry from Thailand, and (2) the suitable model for forecasting the export value of gemstones and jewelry is ln(EXP) = 10.003(EPI) + 0.009(IR) - 0.0045(IEV) Explained the variability in the values of Thailand’s gems and jewelry export around 61.40 percent. the export price index and Industrial Export Value affected The Values of Thailand’s Gems and Jewelry Export with the same relationship. While interest rates affected The Values of Thailand’s Gems and Jewelry Export with opposite direction.