The The Impact of LTV Relaxation Measures on Thailand’s Housing Market in Thailand

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of Loan to Value (LTV) regulatory measures on housing ownership transfers in Thailand using monthly provincial panel data from 77 provinces during 2015–2025, totaling 132 months. After applying an 18-month lag, the data used for model estimation cover July 2018 to December 2025, totaling 90 months. The dependent variable is the number of housing ownership transfers, while the key independent variables are dummy variables representing the overall LTV measure covering both relaxation and tightening periods and the LTV measure specifically during relaxation periods. The model also includes national- and provincial-level control variables and applies a fixed effects panel data model to control for unobserved province-specific characteristics. The results show that the overall LTV measure covering both relaxation and tightening periods is positively associated with housing ownership transfers and is statistically significant at the 0.10 level. The LTV relaxation measure is also positive and statistically significant at the 0.01 level, indicating that LTV relaxation can stimulate housing market activity. Gross provincial product and new housing projects lagged by 18 months are positively associated with housing ownership transfers, while the interest rate, non-performing loan ratio, and housing price index are negatively associated with housing ownership transfers. Among other real estate-related government measures, fee-related measures and land tax measures are negatively associated with housing ownership transfers, while personal income tax measures and loan support measures are positively associated with housing ownership transfers. Overall, the findings suggest that LTV measures are associated with housing ownership transfers, with their effects differing according to the type of measure. In particular, LTV relaxation plays an important role in stimulating the real estate market. Therefore, LTV measures should be applied flexibly and appropriately in accordance with economic conditions.