A Comparative Analysis of the Change in Household Economic Conditions from Political Changes

Abstract

     This paper attempts to analyze changes in economic conditions of Thai households in relation to political changes in 2013 and 2017. By making use of the Household Socio-Economic Survey for the Whole Kingdom, conducted by National
Statistical Office in both years, a substantial shift in households’ geographical location of residence was found. Specifically, the number of households within municipal areas increased significantly, by 37.1 percent, in all regions whereas the
number for the non-municipal households dropped by 11.5 percent. A particularly large increase of 50 percent was observed for Greater Bangkok area (including Nonthaburi, Pathumthani, and Samutprakarn). The increase in household’s average monthly income for the whole kingdom was about 7 percent, but the North, the South, and Greater Bangkok experienced a decline in income with the South having the largest fall of 2.1 percent. Regarding household expenditures, overall they rose by 12.5 percent and only households in non-municipal areas of Greater Bangkok and the South experienced lower average expenditures. Income distribution, as measured by the Gini coefficients in 2017 and 2013, among households remained relatively stable for both years, 0.367 and 0.341, respectively, suggesting no significant improvement in the country’s income inequality during this five-year period. A gravely concerning problem facing all households was debt, which increased substantially over the study period. Households in the Northeast and Northern regions had the highest debt:income ratios among the regions. Much of the household debt was for consumption, constituting about 40.6 percent of the total debt, except for in Greater Bangkok region where debts were for home and land mortgages. The total household assets for the whole kingdom increased substantially between the two surveys, mostly in the form of houses, land, and buildings for either living or working. Households in all regions held very little in liquid assets, less than 10 percent of total assets. Only households in Greater Bangkok held a large proportion of financial and investment assets, about 12 percent of the total. The paper suggested that a longitudinal survey should be undertaken for truly measuring household economic conditions and changes in household debts and assets within the framework of household accounting.