The State under Grey Fog: A Comparative Case Study of State and Conflict Management Based on Conflict Mapping in Ubon Ratchathani and Tak Province

Abstract

Amidst political, economic and social volatility, Thailand is facing an unavoidable crisis in the twenty-first century. This study conducts a spatial survey using conflict mapping tools to systematically survey data and design conflict maps based on international indicators such as the Global Peace Index, the Rule of law Index, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The data obtained from this study were used to develop a prototype for addressing social crises in Thailand. The spatial surveys in the pilot areas aim at conflict prevention and resolution. The selected pilot areas are Mae Sot District in Tak Province (northern region) and Ubon Ratchathani Province (northeastern region). These surveys aim to understand the causes of conflict, the dynamics of the conflicts, the problem-solving approaches adopted by local communities, and the state’s conflict management mechanisms in these areas.

Effective conflict management requires an understanding of key variables—most importantly, the local context. There is no fixed formula for preventing or managing social crises, however, crises can be anticipated and mitigated through informed and context-sensitive approaches. This study seeks to clarify the role of conflict resolution as a means of reducing social crises. In Ubon Ratchathani Province, conflicts are primarily related to natural resource and environmental issues (e.g., the Pak Mun Dam), whereas in Mae Sot District, Tak Province, conflicts mainly concern economic and social challenges. By revealing uncertainties in governance and conflict management, this study offers a clearer understanding of potential pathways for addressing Thailand’s social crises.