Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Household Debt in ASEAN-5 Countries

Abstract

This research aimed to 1) analyze the macroeconomic factors affecting household debt in the ASEAN-5 countries, namely Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, and 2) propose policy guidelines based on the analysis of household debt in the ASEAN-5 countries. This study employed a quantitative research approach using annual secondary panel data from 1997 to 2024, covering a period of 28 years across five countries, with a total of 140 observations. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and panel data regression analysis, with the Fixed Effects Model employed for estimation.
The research findings revealed that per capita gross domestic product, the housing price index, the proportion of the working-age population, and the COVID-19 pandemic were all factors to consider. There is a statistically significant positive correlation between GDP per capita and household debt, with GDP per capita being the most influential factor. A 1 percent increase results in approximately a 0.1738 percent increase in household debt. While the policy interest rate and the Tom Yum Goong crisis have a statistically significant inverse relationship with household debt. Regarding inflation rates, unemployment rates, savings rates, and the 2008 Hamburger Crisis, there was no statistically significant correlation with household debt. Therefore, it is important to track economic conditions through per capita income growth and changes in the working-age population structure. Therefore, it is something that governments and financial institutions in the ASEAN-5 countries should prioritize in managing household debt levels to ensure they remain at a sustainable level.