DETERMINANTS OF THAI DURIAN EXPORTS UNDER THE THAILAND-CHINA ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP: AN OLS ANALYSIS

Abstract

This research aims to examine the determinants of Thailand’s durian export value to China, analyze the relationships between export performance and selected independent variables, evaluate the efficiency of the regression model, and provide relevant policy recommendations. A quantitative research design was employed, using monthly time-series data on Thailand’s fresh durian exports to China from January 2014 to December 2023, totaling 120 observations. Secondary data were compiled from the Office of Agricultural Economics for durian, mangosteen, and longan exports, and from the World Bank for China’s gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis was conducted with R Studio and EViews, applying multiple linear regression under the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation framework. Model diagnostics included tests for stationarity, linearity, multicollinearity, and the overall goodness-of-fit to ensure validity and reliability. The empirical results indicate that Thailand’s durian export value to China has exhibited a consistent upward trend. Among the explanatory variables, the export value of mangosteen shows the strongest positive and statistically significant association, highlighting complementarities in seasonal demand for tropical fruits in the Chinese market. Importantly, the analysis identifies a novel phenomenon termed the “Seasonal Premium Effect,” whereby April (β = 0.2311, p < 0.05) and May (β = 0.2226, p < 0.05) exert the largest positive marginal effects on durian export value, corresponding to peak production cycles and heightened Chinese market demand. Based on these findings, three major policy implications are emphasized: 1) Prioritizing production and export planning during July and August to stabilize supply, 2) Leveraging interdependencies across different fruit exports to strengthen market penetration, and 3) Closely monitoring China’s macroeconomic conditions to anticipate potential risks. Overall, the study underscores the importance of integrating statistical evidence into trade policy and strategic export management to enhance Thailand’s competitive advantage in the global fruit market.