Predicting the Success of Games on Steam Platform
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Abstract
This study aims to identify key factors influencing the success of video games on the Steam platform and to develop a statistical model for predicting a game’s likelihood of success. It serves as a tool to support entrepreneurs in making comprehensive business decisions, enhancing their competitive advantage. Data covering 47,557 video games released between 2018 and 2023 were collected from VGInsights and SteamDB. A logistic regression model was employed to examine the relationships between game success and independent variables: genre, subgenre, price, release month, and publisher quality. The findings revealed that Casual and Sports genres demonstrated a significantly positive impact on success across multiple years. Subgenres such as 2D Platformer, Survival Horror, Shoot ’Em Ups, VR, and FPS also exhibited consistently positive influences. Game pricing showed a significantly positive effect on success annually, with exceptionally high odds ratios ranging from 38 to 196. Conversely, release months such as February, March, August, September, and October displayed a negative impact across multiple years. Furthermore, games categorized as Indie demonstrated a significantly positive effect during 2018–2020, reflecting strong market attention toward indie games during that period before the market became highly competitive. These results provide valuable insights and practical predictive tools for developers and publishers to enhance strategic decision-making in the game industry.
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