FORECASTING LABOR DEMAND OF THAILAND UTILIZING BASIC MOVING AVERAGE AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES

Abstract

This study objectives were to 1) develop a model for forecasting Thailand's labor demand, 2) compare forecasting models utilizing basic moving average method and basic exponential smoothing techniques and 3) forecast Thailand's labor demand in August 2022. The forecast in the current study was carried out employing monthly time series data from January 2017 to July 2022, totaling 67 data points. The data were divided into two sets: The first set comprised 60 data points being collected from January 2017 to December 2021 and being used for developing the forecasting models. The second set comprised 7 data points being collected from January to July 2022 and being used for evaluating the accuracy of the models. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was employed as the criterion for comparing the performance of the forecasting models.

            The findings of this study indicate that the simple moving average method demonstrates superior forecasting accuracy, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 8.2243, which is lower than that obtained from the simple exponential smoothing method. This result suggests that the simple moving average approach is more appropriate for forecasting labor demand in Thailand. Moreover, the forecast estimated that the labor demand in August 2022 amounted to 40,516 persons, thereby underscoring the potential applicability of this method in enhancing labor force planning and informing evidence-based policy formulation.