Myanmar’s Politics and Impact on Thailand (2021-2024)

Abstract

       This Article aimed to study the political situation in Myanmar from 2021 to 2024, alongside analyzing the impacts of the Myanmar political crisis on Thailand, and the role of the Thai government in responding to the resulting challenges. This study adopts a qualitative research approach. Data were collected through documentary research, in-depth interviews with three key informants representing the government, the military, and civil society and participation in academic conferences.The research results were found as follows;

1. The overall situation in Myanmar from 2021 to 2024, following the military coup, has been marked by widespread resistance from civilians, ethnic armed organizations, and opposition groups. Additionally, international pressure in the form of sanctions against the military regime has contributed to Myanmar becoming increasingly subject to interventions by global powers. These developments have directly affected Thailand, and the outlook for Myanmar in 2025 remains characterized by persistent instability and violence.

2 Thailand has been directly affected by the Myanmar crisis in four key dimensions: (1) political, (2) security, (3) economic, and (4) transnational crime. During 2021–2024, the Thai government's responses across three successive administrations can be summarized as follows: (1) The Prayut Chan-o-cha administration adopted a non-interventionist policy and engaged in quiet diplomacy to maintain stable relations and avoid direct confrontation with the Myanmar military regime. (2) The Srettha Thavisin administration prioritized humanitarian cooperation and proactive diplomacy within the ASEAN framework, aiming to enhance Thailand's leadership role in the region. And (3) The Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration has focused on economic diplomacy and strengthening Thailand's role in multilateral platforms. However, its efforts remain constrained by the lack of a clear strategic framework and limited capacity to manage the crisis independently, often relying on third-party support.

1. 3. The researcher further observes that all three administrations share a cautious approach in formulating policy toward Myanmar, prioritizing short-term national interests and impact mitigation over proactive engagement. This trend reflects structural limitations arising from both domestic and international factors. Moreover, Thailand continues to emphasize the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of its neighboring country.