STUDY ON THE PREMIUM RATE DETERMINATION OF SUGARCANE INCOME IN GUANGXI UNDER “FUTURES + INSURANCE”
Abstract
Based on the development status and demand of sugar cane in Guangxi, using the unit yield data from 2009 to 2019 of sugar cane in Guangxi and its 14 cities and the transaction price of white sugar contract and spot price data of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, this paper studies the formulation of sugar cane income insurance rate under “insurance + futures” from an empirical perspective. Based on the spline function, this paper firstly forecasts the unit yield of sugar cane and white sugar price then fits the marginal distribution of the prediction sequence, uses the copula continuous function to connect the unit yield of sugar cane and white sugar price distribution, and finally uses the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the sugar cane income insurance premium rate under different guarantee levels. The research shows that there are differences in sugar cane income insurance rates in different cities under different security levels. According to this circumstance, some suggestions on the development of sugar cane income insurance in Guangxi are given.
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