RUBBER DEMAND FORECASTING AND INTER-INDUSTRY LINKAGE ANALYSIS: A CASE STUDY OF RIBBED SMOKED SHEETS AND TECHNICALLY SPECIFIED RUBBER IN THAILAND

Abstract

        This study aimed to (1) explore marketing environment of rice bran oil (2) study technical aspects of rice bran oil processing of S M rice mill in Changwat Phichit (3) perform financial feasibility and (4) test the ability to sustain change of rice bran oil processing project. The study used primary data obtained from participatory observation and in-depth interviews and secondary data obtained from academic papers of various sources including the internet. Both types of data were used in descriptive and quantitative analyses. Financial tools were net present value (NPV), profitability index (PI), internal rate of return (IRR), modified IRR (MIRR) and switching value test (SVT).

        The result of research found that:

        S M rice mill in Changwat Phichit had sufficient quantity of 1,600 kilograms of rice bran per day to be used as raw material for rice bean oil production at the quality of 88 liters per day. To help increase rice bran oil supply to match the increasing demand according to health consciousness of the people S M rice mill raw the opportunity and decided to invest on rice bran oil production with processing technology screw press machine at the capacity of 2,000 kilograms per day. The financial result under project life of 5 years and WACC as discounted rate of 9.237 percent, the project was worth the investment since NPV was 7,429,301 baht PI was 7.66 IRR was 203.53 percent. and MIRR was 65.93 percent. The SVT showed that the revenue could be down 21.44 percent and the total cost could be up 27.29 percent hence the project risk was quite low.